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Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Peter Lynch's 25 Golden Rules for Investing
Rule 1: Investing is fun and exciting, but dangerous if you don't do any work.
Rule 2: Your investor's edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It's something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.
Rule 3: Over the past 3 decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.
Rule 4: Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it's doing.
Rule 5: Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100% correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.
Rule 6: You have to know what you own, and why you own it. "This baby is a cinch to go up" doesn't count.
Rule 7: Long shots almost always miss the mark.
Rule 8: Owning stocks is like having children - don't get involved with more than you can handle. The part-time stockpicker probably has time to follow 8-12 companies, and to buy and sell shares as conditions warrant. There don't have to be more than 5 companies in the portfolio at any one time.
Rule 9: If you can't find any companies that you think are attractive, put your money in the bank until you discover some.
Rule 10: Never invest in a company without understanding its finances. The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets. Always look at the balance sheet to see if a company is solvent before you risk your money on it.
Rule 11: Avoid hot stocks in hot industries. Great companies in cold, non-growth industries are consistent big winners.
Rule 12: With small companies, you are better off to wait until they turn a profit before you invest.
Rule 13: If you are thinking of investing in a troubled industry, buy the companies with staying power. Also, wait for the industry to show signs of revival. Buggy whips and radio tubes were troubled industries that never came back.
Rule 14: If you invest $1000 in a stock, all you can lose is $1000, but you stand to gain $10,000 or even $50,000 over time if you are patient. The average person can concentrate on a few good companies, while the fund manager is forced to diversify. By owning too many stocks, you lose this advantage of concentration. It only takes a handful of big winners to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile.
Rule 15: In every industry and every region of the country, the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before the professionals have discovered them.
Rule 16: A stock market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you are prepared, it can't hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.
Rule 17: Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether.
Rule 18: There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.
Rule 19: Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market, Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you have invested.
Rule 20: If you study 10 companies, you will find 1 for which the story is better than expected. If you study 50, you'll find 5. There are always pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market - companies whose achievements are being overlooked on Wall Street.
Rule 21: If you don't study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Rule 22: Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient - even if you missed Wal-Mart in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.
Rule 23: If you have the stomach for stocks, but neither the time nor the inclination to do the homework, invest in equity mutual funds. Here, it's a good idea to diversify. You should own a few different kinds of funds, with managers who pursue different styles of investing: growth, value small companies, large companies etc. Investing the six of the same kind of fund is not diversification.
Rule 24: Among the major stock markets of the world, the U.S. market ranks 8th in total return over the past decade. You can take advantage of the faster-growing economies by investing some portion of your assets in an overseas fund with a good record.
Rule 25: In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won't outperform the money left under the mattress.
Monday, March 31, 2008
12 Timeless Rules of Investing
1. An attempt at making a quick buck often leads to losing much of that buck.
• The people who suffer the worst losses are those who over-reach.
• If the investment sounds too good to be true, it is.
• The best hot tip I've found is "there is no such thing as a hot tip."
2. Don't let a small loss become large.
• Don't keep losing money just to "prove you are right."
• Never throw good money after bad (don't buy more of a loser).
• When all you're left with is hope, get out.
3. Cut your losers; let your winners ride.
• Avoid limited-upside, unlimited-downside investments.
• Don't fall in love with your investment; it won't fall in love with you.
4. A rising tide raises all ships, and vice versa. So assess the tide, not the ships.
• Fighting the prevailing "trend" is generally a recipe for disaster.
• Stocks will fall more than you think and rise higher than you can imagine.
• In the short run, values don't matter.
5. When a stock hits a new high, it's not time to sell ... something is going right.
• When a stock hits a new low, it's not time to buy.. . something is going wrong.
6. Buy and hold doesn't ALWAYS work.
• If stocks don't seem cheap, stand aside.
7. Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times.
8. If you don't understand the investment, don't buy it.
• Don't be wooed. Either make an effort to understand it or say "no thanks."
• You can't know everything, so don't stray far from what you know.
9. Buy value, and sell hysteria.
• Paying less than the underlying asset's value is a proven successful strategy.
• Buying overvalued stocks has proven to underperform the market.
• Neglected sectors often offer good values.
• The "popular" sectors are often overvalued.
10. Investing in what's popular never ends up making you any money.
• Avoid popular stocks, fad industries and new ventures.
• Buy an investment when it has few friends.
11. When it's time to act, don't hesitate.
• Once you're in, be patient and don't be rattled by fluctuations.
• Stick with your plan ... but when you make a mistake, don't hesitate.
• Learn more from your bad moves than your good ones.
12. Expert investors care about risk; novice investors shop for returns.
• If you focus on the risks, the returns will eventually come for you.
• If you focus on the returns, the risks will eventually come for you.
Dr. Sjuggerud discusses these investment truths and much, much more in his FREE, twice weekly Investment U E-Letter. If you're not currently receiving the IU E-Letter, but would like to, simply click on this link: www.investmentu.com
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud is the President and editor of Investment U. He is also the editor of his own newsletter, Steve Sjuggerud's True Wealth, and an expert global investor. He possesses more than 10-years experience in the investment world as an analyst, a broker, and an institutional trader. Steve completed his Ph.D. in developing market currencies in 2000.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing
ECONOMIC MOATS
Pat Dorsey's Investor Checklist for Successful Stock Investing:
- Successful investing depends on personal discipline, not on whether the crowd agrees or disagrees with you. That's why it's crucial to have a solid, well-grounded investment philosophy.
- Don't buy a stock unless you understand the business inside and out. Taking the time to investigate a company before you buy the shares will help you avoid the biggest mistakes.
- Focus on companies with wide economic moats that can help them fend off competitors. If you can identify why a company keeps competitors at bay and consistently generates above-average profits, you've identified the source of its moat.
- Don't buy a stock without a margin of safety. Sticking to a strict valuation discipline will help you avoid blowups and improve your investment performance.
- The costs of frequent trading can be a huge drag on performance over time. Treat your stock buys like major purchases, and hold on to them for the long term.
- Know when to sell. Don't sell just because the price has gone up or down, but give it some serious thought if one of the following things has happened: You made a mistake buying it in the first place, the fundamentals have deteriorated, the stock has risen well above its intrinsic value, you can find better opportunities, or it takes up too much space in your portfolio.
Investors often judge companies by looking at which ones have increased profits the most and assuming the trend will persist in the future. But more often than not, the firms that look great in the rearview mirror wind up performing poorly in the future, simply because success attracts competition as surely as night follows day. And the bigger the profits, the stronger the competition. That's the basic nature of any (reasonably) free market - capital always seeks the areas of highest expected return. Therefore, most highly profitable firms tend to become less profitable over time as competitors chip away at their franchises.
We can learn much about the subject of economic moats by studying investment greats like Warren Buffett or academics that focus on competitive strategy like Harvard professor Michael Porter. To analyze a company's economic moat, Dorsey recommends following these 4 steps:- Evaluate the firm's historical profitability. Has the firm been able to generate a solid return on its assets and on shareholders' equity? This is the true litmus test of whether a firm has built an economic moat around itself.
- If the firm has solid returns on capital and consistent profitability, assess the sources of the firm's profits. Why is the company able to keep competitors at bay? What keeps competitors from stealing its profits?
- Estimate how long a firm will be able to hold off competitors, which is the company's competitive advantage period. Some firms can fend of competition for just a few years, and some firms may be able to do it for decades.
- Analyze the industry's competitive structure. How do firms in this industry compete with one another? Is it an attractive industry with many profitable firms or a hypercompetitive one in which participants struggle just to stay afloat?
Evaluating Profitability
We are looking for companies that can earn profits in excess of their cost of capital - companies that can generate substantial cash relative to the amount of investments they make. These high profit businesses are identified by asking the following questions:Does the firm generate free cash flow? First, look at free cash flow - which is simply cash flow from operations minus capital expenditure. Firms that generate free cash flow essentially have money left over after reinvesting whatever they need to keep their businesses humming along. In a sense, free cash flow is money that could be extracted from the firm every year without damaging the core business.
Next, divide the free cash flow by sales (or revenues), which tells what proportion of each dollar in revenue the firm is able to convert into excess profits. If a firm's free cash flow as a percentage of sales is around 5% or better, you've found a cash machine - as of mid-2003, only one-half of the S&P 500 passed this test. Strong free cash flow is an excellent sign that a firm has an economic moat.What are the firm's net margins? Just as free cash flow measures excess profitability from one perspective, net margins look at profitability from another angle. Net margin is simply net income as a percentage of sales, and it tells you how much profit the firm generates per dollar of sales. In general, firms that can post net margins > 15% are doing something right.
What are Returns on Equity? Return on Equity (ROE) is net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity, and it measures profits per dollar of the capital shareholders have invested in a company. Although ROE does have some flaws, it still works well as one tool for assessing overall profitability. As a rule of thumb, firms that are able to consistently post ROEs above 15% are generating solid returns on shareholders' money, which means they're likely to have economic moats.What are Returns on Assets? Return on assets (ROA) is net income as a percentage of a firm's assets, and it measures how efficient a firm is at translating its assets into profits. Use 6% to 7% as a rough benchmark - if a firm is able to consistently post ROAs above this benchmark, it may have some competitive advantage.
What you are looking for in all 4 of these metrics is consistency over more than just a single year. A firm that has consistently cranked out solid ROEs, good free cash flow, and decent margins over a number of years is much more likely to truly have an economic moat than a firm with more erratic results. Consistency is important when evaluating companies, because it's the ability to keep competitors at bay for an extended period of time - not just for a year or two - that really makes a firm valuable. Five years is the absolute minimum time period for evaluation, and 10 years is much better.
Building an Economic Moat
Next, Dorsey recommends that we try to figure out why a firm has done such a great jog of holding on to its profits and keeping competition frustrated. Although being in an attractive industry can certainly help, the strategy pursued at the company level is even more important. The mere fact that there are excellent companies in fundamentally unattractive industries (e.g. Southwest Airlines) tells us intuitively that this must be the case. Academic research suggests that a firm's strategy is roughly twice as important as a firm's industry for building moats.
When you're examining the sources of a firm's economic moat, the key is to never stop asking, 'Why?' Why aren't competitors stealing the firm's customers? Why can't a competitor charge a lower price for a similar product or service? Why do customers accept annual price increases?When possible, look at the situation from the customer's perspective. What value does the product or service bring to the customer? How does it help them run their own business better? Why do they use one firm's product or service instead of a competitor's? If you can answer these questions, odds are good that you'll have found the source of the company's economic moat. In general, there are five ways that an individual firm can build and sustain competitive advantage:
- Creating real product differentiation through superior technology or features.
- Creating perceived product differentiation through a trusted brand or reputation.
- Driving costs down and offering a similar product or service at a lower price.
- Locking in customers by creating high switching costs.
- Locking out competitors by creating high barriers to entry or high barriers to success.
How Long will a Moat Last?
Think about an economic moat in two dimensions. There's depth -- how much money the firm can make -- and there's width -- how long the firm can sustain above-average profits. Technology firms often have very deep but very narrow moats, so they're incredibly profitable for a relatively short period of time until a competitor builds a better product. A niche firm such as WD-40 is just the opposite. It's never going to make an enormous amount of money in any one year by selling cans of household lubricant, but it has such a solid franchise that its excess returns are likely to persist for quite a long time.Estimating how long a moat will last is tough stuff, but you need to at least give it some thought, even if you can't come up with a precise answer. Just being able to separate firms into three categories -- a few years, several years, and many years -- is very useful.
In general, any competitive advantage based on technological superiority -- real product differentiation -- is likely to be fairly short. Successful software firms, for example, can generate huge excess returns because they have high profit margins and they don't need to spend much money on fixed costs such as machinery. However, the duration of those returns is typically very short because of the rapid pace of technological change. In other words, today's leader can quickly become tomorrow's loser because the barriers to entry are so low and the potential rewards so high.Cost leadership, brands (perceived product differentiation), customer lock-ins, and competitor lockouts can each confer competitive advantage periods of verying lengths -- there's no good rule of thumb, unfortunately. To give some guidance in what separates a wide moat from a narrow moat and what kinds of companies have no moat al all, Dorsey lists the following well-known companies and briefly discusses their competitive situation...
- Dell... Classic low-cost producer: lean operating structure and direct Internet-based sales allow the company to run circles around its rivals.
- eBay... Network effect: The more buyers and sellers the network has, the more attractive it becomes to prospective users and the tougher it becomes for competitors to contend with.
- PepsiCo... By far the market share leader in salty snacks and sports drinks, the diversified food company boasts a stable full of strong brands, innovative new products, and an impressive distribution network.
- Comcast... Controls roughly one-third of cable households in the U.S. This gives it unparalleled leverage with content providers and equipment suppliers.
- Intel... Chipmaker's dominant position gives it significant economies of scale. Brand name and patents are also significant intangible assets.
- H&R Block... Dominates the U.S. tax preparation market. One in every seven tax returns filed is prepared by Block.
- Wal-Mart... Largest retail company in the world is also the preeminent low-cost provider. The firm flexes its muscles with suppliers in negotiating prices and passes the savings down to consumers.
- Federal Express... Sure, it practically invented overnight delivery, but behind the scenes, FedEx is a cargo airline, and airline margins are thin.
- Nokia... Although the Nokia brand is strong, cell phones are becoming commodities.
- ExxonMobile... Enjoys enormous economies of scale, but still operates in a commodity industry.
- General Motors... Operates in deeply cyclical industry. Legacy costs and reputation for mediocre quality puts it at a competitive disadvantage relative to most peers.
- Delta... Not the low-cost provider and doesn't offer a differentiated product. In a commodity industry where competition revolves largely around price, its business model is unsustainable.
THE TEN MINUTE TEST
With literally thousands of companies available to invest in, one of the toughest challenges for any investor, say's Pat Dorsey, is figuring out which ones are worth detailed examination and shich ones aren't. Assuming that you know the various tools of in-depth fundamental analysis, you further need some tips on narrowing down the field of stocks to apply these tools. Apply the following tests to any stock that you think might be a worthwhile investment, and you should be able to decide in 10 minutes whether it warrants more time and in-depth tools.
In fact, asking the right questions will allow you to eliminate at lease half, if not more of the stocks you run across from consideration. Throwing out less-promising stocks early in the process will leave you more time to investigate the value of the ones that really might be great investments.Two caveats before we start: First, these rules of thumb are starting points, no more and no less. There are exceptions to every guideline listed. These shortcuts aren't designed to cover every possible situation, but if you apply them, they will eliminate poor investments more often than not. Second, although the following list of questions might seem daunting at first, you can answer all of them if you gather the proper data.
Does the Firm Pass a Minimum Quality Hurdle?
Avoiding the junk that litters the investment landscape is the first step in Dorsey's 10-minute test. Companies with miniscule market capitalizations are first ruled out. He also avoids recent IPOs, believing that companies sell shares to the public only when they think they're getting a high price. Moreover, most IPOs are young, unseasoned firms with short track records. The big exception to this rule is firms that are spun off from larger parent companies. Spinoffs are often solid companies with long operating histories that the larger firm no longer wants to manage, and the stocks can often be attractively valued as well.
Has the Company Ever Made an Operating Profit?
This test sounds simple, but it'll keep you out of a lot of trouble. Very often, companies that are still in the money-losing stage sound the most exciting -- they're investigating a novel treatment for some rare disease, or they're about to offer some exciting new product or service, the likes of which the world has never seen.
Unfortunately, stocks like this will also blow up your portfolio more often than not. They usually have only a single product or service in the pipeline, and the eventual viability of the product or service will make or break the company. (Going by the statistics of how many start-ups fail, break is a more likely occurrence than make.) Unless you're looking for an alternative to lottery tickets, take a pass on any firm that hasn't yet proven it can earn a buck.
Does the Company Generate Consistent Cash Flow from Operations?
Are Returns on Equity Consistently above 10%, with Reasonable Leverage?
One exception is that cyclical firms -- companies whose results vary strongly with the general economy -- may have wildly varying results from year to year. However, the best will make money and post decent ROEs even when times are tough.
Is Earnings Growth Consistent or Erratic?
The best companies post reasonably consistent growth rates. If a firm's earnings bounce all over the place, it's either in an extremely volatile industry or it's regularly getting shellacked by competitors. The former is not necessarily bad as long as the long-term industry outlook is good and the shares are cheap, but the latter is potentially a big problem.
How Clean is the Balance Sheet?
- Is the firm in a stable business? Firms in industries such as consumer products and food can withstand more leverage than economically sensitive firms with volatile earnings.
- Has debt been going down or up as a percentage of total assets? One thing you don't want to see in a highly leveraged firm is even more debt.
- Do you understand the debt? If a quick glance at the regulatory filings reveals questionable debt and quasi-debt instruments that you can't wrap your head around, move on. There are many fine companies out there with simpler capital structures.
Does the Firm Generate Free Cash Flow?
As we know, free cash flow is the holy grail -- cash generated after capital expenditures that truly increases the value of the firm. Generally, you should prefer firms that create free cash to ones that don't and firms that create more free cash to ones that create less. Divide free cash flow by sales and seek out companies above a 5% benchmark.The one exception -- and a big one -- is that it's fine for a firm to be generating negative free cash flow if it's investing that cash wisely in projects that are likely to pay off well in the future. For example, neither Starbucks nor Home Depot generated meaningful free cash flow until 2001 -- yet there's no question that they had been creating economic value (and shareholder wealth) for many years before 2001. That's because they were plowing every cent they earned right back into their business because their management teams believed that they still had many high-return investment opportunities for the cash they were generating.
So don't automatically write off firms with negative cash flow if they have solid ROEs and pass the other tests discussed. Just be sure you believe that the firm is really reinvesting the cash wisely.
How Much 'Other' Is There?
Has the Number of Shares Outstanding Increased Markedly over the Past Several Year?
However, if the number of shares is actually shrinking, the company potentially gets a big gold star. Firms that buy back many shares are returning excess cash to shareholders, which is generally a responsible thing to do. Just be careful that the company isn't going hog-wild with share repurchases even as their shares keep zooming ever upward because stock repurchases are a good use of capital only when the company's shares are trading for a reasonable valuation. You don't want to see a company buying its own overvalued stock any more than you want to invest in overvalued shares yourself.
Credits: This article is extracted from Pat Dorsey's book, The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing, Wiley 2004,
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Charlie Munger's 10 Rules for Investment Success
Those of you lucky enough to attend a Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) annual shareholder meeting have undoubtedly heard Charlie Munger say, "I have nothing to add."
In reality, the guy has quite a bit to add. Thankfully for us, Munger is almost as forthcoming with his investment thoughts as his pal Warren Buffett. In his must-read book, Poor Charlie's Almanac, Munger puts forth a 10-step checklist that even the most inexperienced investors could benefit from.
1. Measure risk
All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational.
It's crucially important to understand that from time to time, your investments won't turn out the way you wanted. To protect your portfolio, don't set yourself up for complete failure in the first place. Giving yourself a large margin of safety, avoiding people of questionable character, and only taking on risk when you can be sure you'll be satisfactorily rewarded are all steps in the right direction. Companies like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) might have perfectly bright futures, but when their shares are priced for perfection, they might nonetheless prove too risky for savvy investors.
2. Be independent
Only in fairy tales are emperors told they're naked.
With stockbrokers often rewarded for activity, not successful investments, it's critically important to make sure you believe that what you're doing is right. Chasing others' opinions may seem logical, but investors like Munger and Buffett often succeed by going against the grain. Big Berkshire investments such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), and more recently Petrochina (NYSE: PTR), were largely ignored by the masses when they were first made.
3. Prepare ahead
The only way to win is to work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights.
It shouldn't surprise you that the best investments aren't the ones we typically read about in the paper. The diamonds in the rough are out there, but finding them requires effort. Buffett reads thousands of annual reports to cultivate ideas -- even if he only comes up with a few candidates each year. Munger advocates a constant curiosity for nearly everything in life. If you never stop asking the "whys" in what you do, you won't have trouble staying motivated.
4. Have intellectual humility
Acknowledging what you don't know is the dawning of wisdom.
Perhaps most crucially to Berkshire's success, its leaders never stray away from their comfort zones. In investing, a clear idea of what the business will look like in the future counts most. If you struggle to comprehend what the business does today, you might as well be throwing darts. While companies like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) are certainly titans in their own right today, they might look drastically different in five to 10 years.
5. Analyze rigorously
Use effective checklists to minimize errors and omissions.
The numbers don't lie. When researching investments, Buffett and Munger like to try to estimate the security's worth before they even look at its price. They are businessmen, not stock-market junkies. They focus their brainpower on the value of businesses, not convoluted economic forecasts or intricate market-timing techniques. Munger is incredibly brilliant, but the analytical rigor of his investment decisions is based around simplicity, not complexity.
6. Allocate assets wisely
Proper allocation of capital is an investor's No. 1 job.
In the early days of Munger's investment partnership, he held very few securities. When good ideas came, he poured significant capital into them; otherwise, he simply enjoyed the California sun. The amount of money employed in each of your investments should relate directly to its attractiveness. When you find a great investment, don't be afraid to bet big on it.
7. Have patience
Resist the natural human bias to act.
Munger said it best himself: "Half of Warren's time is sitting on his ass and reading; the other half is spent talking on the phone or in person to a highly gifted person that he trusts and trust him." While it can be tempting to jump in and out of the market, true fortunes are made from big commitments in quality companies, held indefinitely. When you're done with that, find a hobby. Spending all day watching stock tickers won't do you much good.
8. Be decisive
When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction.
This also goes back to not following the herd. When others are jubilant, you should be scared, and vice versa. Don't let others' emotions sway you; the market masses should help you find opportunities in their absence, not guide you down their own path to mediocrity.
9. Be ready for change
Accept unremovable complexity.
Investing success requires us to accept inevitable changes. Munger and Buffett hated railroads for decades, but as the times changed, they threw their old thoughts out the door and invested billions. The world around us won't always conform to our preferences and prejudices, and sometimes our best ideas will prove incorrect. If you aren't willing to roll with a changing market, you may find yourself fighting a lost cause.
10. Stay focused
Keep it simple and remember what you set out to do.
In chasing little, unimportant things, we often overlook huge and critical factors. But by keeping it simple, we can fixate on what really matters: buying good companies at a good price, and holding them until they're fully priced.
Charlie Munger often gets overshadowed by his more famous partner, but don't assume that's any reflection of Munger's own genius. He's undoubtedly been a guiding light for Buffett himself, and by any count, he should go down as one of the greatest investors of all time.